The European Union’s goal of ending sales of internal combustion engine vehicles by 2035 has recently resurfaced amid debates of a possible “step back.” Advancing toward a new economic growth model focused on circular economy under the Green Deal, the EU had taken radical decisions for 2035, announcing that internal combustion engines would be banned in the automotive sector. Reports in the international press suggest that new scenarios are being considered, raising questions about how the electric vehicle market will be affected.
What Did the 2035 Target Mean?
Within the framework of climate policies, the European Union had agreed on a regulation aiming to reduce carbon emissions from the automotive sector by mandating zero-emission new vehicle sales starting in 2035. In practice, this approach largely envisioned battery electric vehicles (BEVs) replacing gasoline and diesel cars.
However, recent assessments and industry pressures indicate that the implementation of this target is being reconsidered. The rhetoric of a “total ban” is giving way to a more flexible, technology-neutral approach to emission reduction goals.
Does This Mean a Slowdown in the Transition to Electric Vehicles?
The emerging picture is interpreted not as a complete reversal but as a recalibration of the transition process. While the EU’s main objective of reducing emissions remains intact, achieving this goal now appears to allow more room for:
- Hybrid and plug-in hybrid vehicles,
- Alternative fuels (biofuels, e-fuels),
- Different powertrain technologies.
This approach highlights multi-technology scenarios aligned with market realities, rather than a single-track transformation focused solely on electric vehicles. Thus, this development should be read not as abandoning electric vehicles, but as redefining the pace and method of the transition.
Why Is It Being Raised Now?
In recent years, the European automotive sector has faced:
- High production costs,
- Risks related to battery supply chains,
- Fluctuations in consumer demand,
- Global competitive pressures.
These conditions have increased political and industrial pressure to align regulations with on-the-ground realities. The 2035 debates, therefore, are not about abandoning the targets but about reconsidering the flexibility of their implementation.
How Should the Lubricants Sector Interpret This?
For the lubricants sector, which supplies products and services to the automotive industry, such developments carry strategic importance. Postponement or softening of a full internal combustion engine ban implies:
- Internal combustion and hybrid vehicle fleets may remain in the market longer than expected,
- Demand continuity in products such as engine oils, transmission fluids, and coolants in the short and medium term,
- Yet in the long run, demand will not remain fully preserved, but rather evolve in structure.
Therefore, the critical point for the sector is not to position itself with expectations of a “return,” but to develop flexible strategies prepared for multiple scenarios.
For lubricant manufacturers, the importance of:
- Special formulations for electric and hybrid vehicles,
- Products with a low carbon footprint,
- New service- and maintenance-oriented business models
remains unchanged.
In summary, the debates surrounding the EU’s 2035 target do not signal “relief” for the sector, but rather serve as a strong warning that the transition will be more complex and multi-layered.
